The “Sub-6%” Shift: Why Bay Area Homebuyers Are Finally Making Their Move

The “Sub-6%” Shift: Why Bay Area Homebuyers Are Finally Making Their Move

If you’ve been house-hunting in California (especially around the Bay Area) over the last couple of years, you know how it’s felt: soaring prices, higher mortgage rates, and that lingering thought that owning a home might just have to wait.

But as we step into February 2026, something has changed — and this shift could redefine the year for both buyers and sellers.

Mortgage rates have finally settled below 6% — their lowest level in three years.

🏡 The New “Normal”: Why 5.99% Feels Like a Big Deal

For the first time since mid-2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped and stabilized around 5.99%.

While it’s not the dreamy 3% we saw during the pandemic, this “sub-6% zone” has created something more powerful than a lower payment — it’s sparked confidence.

• 30-Year Fixed: 5.99% – 6.16%, depending on lender and credit score

• 15-Year Fixed: Around 5.49%, ideal for equity-focused buyers in higher-value Bay Area markets

For homeowners who’ve been holding onto 3% rates, the difference between 3% and 7.5% felt impossible to justify a move. But now that rates are hovering around 5.9%, that psychological barrier is starting to fade.

💰 Why Affordability Is (Slowly) Improving

The market isn’t suddenly “cheap,” but several small shifts are creating real momentum:

• Income vs. Price Balance: For the first time in years, wages are outpacing home price growth. C.A.R. projects home prices to rise a modest 2.2% to 3.6% this year, while strong sectors like AI and tech are boosting income levels — especially here in the Bay Area.

• Refinance Relief: Homeowners who locked in rates at 7.5–8% in 2023–2024 are refinancing into the 5–6% range, often saving $500+ per month.

• Inventory Thaw: Lower rates aren’t just attracting buyers — they’re motivating sellers too. Active listings statewide are up 9% year-over-year, giving buyers more choices and reducing that “bidding war burnout.”

⚖️ Is Now the Right Time to Buy (or Sell)?

Here’s the catch: as rates stay below 6%, experts predict a surge in buyer activity — with as many as 1.5 million California households ready to re-enter the market.

That means today’s balance between opportunity and competition won’t last long.

For Buyers: Acting while rates are stable could mean less competition — and more negotiating power — before demand spikes later this spring.

For Sellers: The return of serious buyers makes this an ideal moment to list. With more qualified shoppers and fewer homes hitting the market just yet, well-presented listings are moving fast again.

🌤️ The Bottom Line

California real estate is finally finding its rhythm. After years of volatility, buyers and sellers alike are enjoying something rare — predictability.

Whether you’re planning to upgrade, downsize, or make your first purchase, the 2026 “Launch Window” has opened.

💬 Ready to Talk Strategy?

Let’s discuss how today’s sub-6% market could work to your advantage — whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options.

📩 Contact Yvonne Yang Homes today for a personalized market update and next-step strategy tailored to your Bay Area goals.

Insights originally shared by NerdWallet. Local perspective and commentary by Yvonne Yang, Top Bay Area Realtor®.